We like to think we’re objective when it comes to assessing the weather.
After all, we have scientific data, meteorological records, and historical trends to rely on.
But in reality, our perception of weather patterns is often shaped more by personal experience than by actual climate data.
Take the UK in 2012.
That year saw the wettest week on record, and people who experienced flooding were convinced that rainfall had been steadily increasing over their lifetimes.
Meanwhile, those who didn’t deal with flooding?
They only saw 2012 as an outlier—a particularly wet year, but not necessarily part of a bigger trend.
The same psychological effect played out in the U.S. that year.
Before the devastating 2012 drought hit the Midwest, 41% of residents believed that dry spells were becoming more frequent and intense.
But once the drought set in, that number jumped to 66%. One severe event was enough to convince many people that they were witnessing a long-term shift.
This raises an interesting question: Is the weather actually getting weirder, or are we just perceiving it that way?
Our Brains Are Wired for Short-Term Thinking
Humans tend to focus on the most recent events rather than looking at long-term data.
Psychologists call this the recency bias—our tendency to give greater importance to events that are fresh in our minds.
This bias affects everything from financial decisions to sports predictions and, of course, our perception of climate trends.
For example, if you just lived through a scorching summer with record-high temperatures, you might think, “Summers are getting hotter every year!”
But if the next summer is milder, you might just as easily believe that things have stabilized—even if climate data shows a clear warming trend over decades.
The same happens with extreme cold.
A single unusually frigid winter can make people doubt global warming, even though climate change models predict more frequent and extreme fluctuations, including cold snaps.
In short?
We don’t remember the weather accurately—we remember what stood out the most.
How Politics and Media Shape Our Weather Perception
Beyond personal experience, our views on climate and weather are often influenced by our beliefs, political affiliation, and media consumption.
Studies have shown that people who are skeptical about man-made climate change are less likely to perceive extreme weather as part of a larger pattern.
Instead, they may see it as a random event or natural fluctuation.
On the flip side, those who believe in climate change are more likely to view every extreme weather event as further proof of a shifting climate.
The news media also plays a massive role in shaping our perceptions.
Sensational headlines, dramatic weather footage, and overuse of terms like “historic,” “unprecedented,” or “once-in-a-lifetime” can make us feel like the weather is spiraling out of control—even when the data says otherwise.
Weather Extremes Are Increasing—But Not Always in the Way We Think
So, is the weather actually getting weirder? Yes—but not necessarily in the way we perceive it.
Scientific data confirms that certain weather extremes are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change. For example:
- Heatwaves are lasting longer and occurring more frequently. The past eight years have been some of the hottest on record globally.
- Heavy rainfall and flooding are increasing in many areas due to warmer air holding more moisture.
- Hurricanes and typhoons are intensifying, even if their overall frequency isn’t drastically changing.
- Wildfire seasons are getting longer and more destructive in places like California, Australia, and the Mediterranean.
However, not all extreme weather events fit a clear pattern.
For instance, while global warming is making summers hotter on average, it doesn’t mean every single summer will be warmer than the last.
There will still be fluctuations, but the overall trajectory is clear.
Breaking Free from Our Weather Illusions
Understanding that our brains are wired to misinterpret weather trends is the first step in breaking free from biased thinking. Here’s how we can stay better informed:
- Look at the data, not just personal experience. Rely on meteorological records and climate reports rather than anecdotal evidence.
- Be aware of media exaggeration. While extreme weather deserves attention, be mindful of sensationalized language that might distort reality.
- Recognize bias in yourself and others. Whether political, ideological, or personal, our pre-existing beliefs influence how we interpret events.
- Think long-term. Instead of focusing on one bad storm or one heatwave, consider how trends evolve over decades, not just one season.
Final Thoughts
Yes, the weather is changing—but not always in the ways we assume.
Human perception is deeply flawed when it comes to recognizing long-term patterns, and our experiences, biases, and media exposure shape the way we view climate trends.
To truly understand what’s happening with our planet, we need to step back from short-term thinking and focus on scientific evidence.
Only then can we make sense of our rapidly shifting world—and take the right steps to prepare for it.
So next time someone says, “The weather is getting weirder,” ask them: Is it really? Or is that just how it feels?
Source: MinuteEarth
