If you’re feeling good about your waistline at the moment, hold onto that feeling—because it won’t last.
Research suggests that right now, many of us are at our lowest weight of the year, just before the holiday season kicks off its annual cycle of indulgence.
But the real problem isn’t the few extra pounds you might gain—it’s how long they stick around.
A study led by Brian Wansink from Cornell University found that Americans, on average, begin packing on holiday weight around Thanksgiving, with an increase of 0.2% in body weight.
By Christmas, the gain reaches 0.4%, and by New Year’s, it peaks at an average of 1.3 pounds (0.6 kg) per person.
Germans and Japanese participants in the study showed similar patterns, with Germans gaining 1.8 pounds (0.8 kg) and Japanese participants adding 1.1 pounds (0.5 kg).
But here’s the kicker: it takes nearly five months to lose the weight gained over just a few weeks.
The numbers tell a clear story—your body weight starts creeping up around October, spikes in late December, and only begins to normalize around May.
The Hidden Holiday Weight Cycle
Wansink and his team tracked the weight fluctuations of almost 3,000 participants in the U.S., Germany, and Japan using Wi-Fi-connected smart scales from the French electronics company Withings.
Unlike traditional weight-tracking methods that rely on self-reporting, these devices automatically uploaded data to the cloud, providing an accurate, long-term picture of real weight trends.
Their findings revealed that weight gain isn’t just about the holidays themselves.
It’s about the weeks leading up to them—the office parties, family gatherings, and mindless snacking during holiday preparations.
“Whether it be office parties, whether it be receptions, whether it be your friends’ parties, or it could be you just buying a lot of stuff and eating while you’re preparing things, there’s this real ramp-up to almost every holiday,” Wansink told The New York Times.
And once the damage is done, the road back is slow. On average, it takes Americans until after Easter to return to pre-holiday weight levels.
Why Most People Never Fully Lose Holiday Weight
Here’s where things get even more concerning: many people never fully lose their holiday weight before the next cycle begins.
Studies have shown that some individuals retain a small percentage of their seasonal weight gain year after year, leading to a gradual increase in baseline body weight over time.
Think about it—just an extra pound retained each year adds up to 10 pounds in a decade.
That’s how weight gain sneaks up on people, not through dramatic changes, but through small, cumulative increases that go unnoticed.
But What About Self-Control?
You might assume that people who track their weight daily and own expensive fitness gadgets are better at keeping the pounds off.
Not quite.
The participants in this study weren’t average people—they were individuals who had invested in high-tech weight monitoring devices.
Yet even among these weight-conscious users, the pattern remained the same.
“Even among this diligent, almost-ideal population, there’s no escaping this almost inevitable holiday weight gain,” Wansink said.
This challenges the common assumption that discipline alone is enough to prevent holiday weight gain.
The reality is, external factors—social gatherings, seasonal traditions, and our own biology—work against us.
What You Can Do Now
Instead of focusing on a New Year’s resolution to lose weight, Wansink suggests a different approach: an October resolution to gain less in the first place.
Here are a few ways to get ahead of the holiday weight cycle:
- Weigh yourself daily – Studies show that daily weigh-ins can help people stay more mindful of their weight trends.
- Follow the 80/20 rule – Stick to healthy eating 80% of the time while allowing for indulgences 20% of the time.
- Prioritize protein and fiber – These macronutrients help with satiety and can curb excessive holiday cravings.
- Stay active during the holidays – Simple activities like post-meal walks or winter sports can help counteract extra calories.
- Limit liquid calories – Holiday drinks like eggnog, mulled wine, and sugary cocktails can contribute to weight gain more than people realize.
The key takeaway? Weight gain over the holidays isn’t just about willpower—it’s about understanding the cycle and taking action before it begins.
So, if you’re feeling good about your weight right now, don’t wait until January to address the inevitable.
Start now, and you won’t have to spend the next five months trying to undo the damage.
