Historical Evidence Suggests Antarctica Will Melt Quicker Than We Thought

For decades, scientists have warned about the melting of Antarctica’s ice sheets—but new research suggests the situation may be even worse than we thought.

A team of scientists from New Zealand’s Antarctic Research Centre, led by Dr. Nick Golledge, has just completed the most accurate reconstruction of Antarctica’s ice sheet evolution over the past 25,000 years.

The findings, published in Nature Communications, paint a sobering picture:

Antarctica’s ice sheet is collapsing in a way that could trigger rapid sea level rise.
This process has happened before—14,000 years ago, ice melt from Antarctica caused sea levels to rise nearly three meters in just a few centuries.
Current ocean conditions mirror those past events, meaning history could repeat itself—only this time, billions of people are in the way.

It’s well known that the West Antarctic ice sheet is in irreversible decline, but how fast will the rest of Antarctica collapse?

And how much time do we have before we start seeing the impact?

Scientists believe the key to these answers lies in the past, and they’re using cutting-edge technology to uncover the truth.

How Scientists Are Reconstructing Antarctica’s Past

To predict the future, researchers are looking back 25,000 years—to the end of the last Ice Age—when Antarctica underwent drastic transformations.

One of the most powerful tools in this research is a technique called cosmogenic dating, used by Dr. Duanne White from the Institute for Applied Ecology at the University of Canberra.

Cosmogenic dating works by analyzing the isotopes in rocks and sediments that were once buried under ice.

When the ice retreats, these rocks become exposed to cosmic radiation from space.

By measuring the buildup of isotopes, scientists can determine exactly when the ice melted away.

“I can map where the ice sheet has been in the field and then date when the ice was in that position,” explained Dr. White. “We can then compare that evidence to past local climate information to get a sense of how that impacted the ice melting.”

Using this data, Dr. Golledge’s team developed a highly detailed model of Antarctica’s ice evolution from the last Ice Age to the present day.

What they discovered was shocking.

Antarctica’s Ice Melt Can Spiral Out of Control

The new model revealed a vicious cycle that accelerates ice loss.

When Antarctica’s ice sheets begin to melt, they cause the surrounding ocean to become “layered” or stratified.
The warm water at the bottom of these layers speeds up ice melt, triggering a chain reaction.
This happened around 14,000 years ago, when rapid Antarctic ice loss contributed to a three-meter rise in global sea levels over just a few centuries.

Now, here’s the alarming part:

Current oceanographic observations around Antarctica show that the ocean is once again becoming stratified.

This suggests that we could be on the brink of another period of extreme ice loss—one that could raise sea levels far faster than previously predicted.

“Twenty years ago, we couldn’t understand what drove the changes we saw in the ice sheet in the past,” said Dr. White. “But this new model is one of the first that can go back and reliably predict what happened in the past. That means it’s more accurate at making projections for the future too.”

And what those projections reveal is deeply concerning.

A Look at Future Sea Level Rise

Right now, around 10% of the global population lives less than 10 meters above sea level.

If Antarctic ice melts as quickly as it did in the past, entire cities and coastal regions could be submerged in just a few centuries.

Scientists are now racing to determine exactly how quickly this could happen.

If global temperatures rise by 2–4°C, Antarctica could lose enough ice to raise sea levels by 5–10 meters.
During the Pliocene epoch, when temperatures were similar to what we’re heading toward, sea levels were dramatically higher than today.

“What’s happened in the past isn’t always a direct guide to what will happen in the future,” Dr. White explained. “But if we input that data into climate models, we can make informed projections based on previous behavior.”

And those projections suggest we may already be locked into a dangerous trajectory.

Can We Still Prevent the Worst-Case Scenario?

The truth is, some level of sea level rise is now inevitable.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is already past the point of no return, and melting will continue for centuries.

But how fast and how severe that rise becomes depends on what we do now.

Reducing carbon emissions can still slow warming, giving us more time to adapt.
Protecting natural ice barriers—like floating ice shelves—could help stabilize parts of Antarctica’s ice sheet.
Investing in coastal defenses and smart urban planning will be critical for protecting vulnerable communities.

Unfortunately, policymakers have been slow to act, despite overwhelming scientific evidence.

The researchers hope their findings will serve as a wake-up call for governments worldwide.

“The thing I’m working towards is understanding how quickly the ice sheet might collapse if we do warm the planet by 2 to 4 degrees Celsius,” said Dr. White.

And the reality is, we are already heading toward those temperature increases—unless global emissions are drastically reduced in the coming decades.

What Happens Next?

Dr. White and his team are continuing their research, aiming to refine projections for how quickly sea levels will rise.

The goal is to provide policymakers with data they cannot ignore—data that could help shape climate policies, urban planning, and global adaptation efforts.

The next decade will be critical.

If action is taken now, we may still have a chance to slow the collapse of Antarctica’s ice sheets.

But if current trends continue, our coastlines could be unrecognizable within a few generations.

The choice is ours.