The Earth is changing faster than ever, and nowhere is this more evident than in the icy wilderness of Antarctica.
Scientists have been keeping a close eye on a growing fracture in the Larsen C ice shelf, one of the largest ice shelves in the world.
Over the past five months alone, this crack has stretched an additional 22 kilometers (13.67 miles), now spanning a staggering 130 kilometers (80 miles) in total length.
The implications are dire.
Experts predict that it’s only a matter of time before a massive chunk of Larsen C, roughly 6,000 square kilometers (2,316 square miles)—about the size of Delaware—breaks free, marking the third-largest recorded loss of Antarctic ice in history.
The Larsen ice shelves, located on the Antarctic Peninsula, have already suffered significant losses.
Larsen A disintegrated in 1995, and Larsen B followed in 2002, shattering after being stable for over 12,000 years. Now, the largest of them all, Larsen C, is on the brink of collapse.
Challenging What We Know About Ice Shelf Stability
For years, scientists believed that large ice shelves like Larsen C could endure the effects of climate change for decades, even centuries. But this assumption is rapidly unraveling.
Larsen C’s situation is eerily similar to the fate of its neighbor, Larsen B, which experienced a rift-induced calving event before its dramatic disintegration.
According to the Project MIDAS team, a UK-led research collaboration, 12% of Larsen C is expected to break away, leaving the ice front at its most retreated position ever.
Computer models suggest that this could destabilize the remaining ice, setting off a chain reaction that might lead to the complete collapse of Larsen C.
Such events were once considered rare, but they are now becoming alarmingly common, fueled by a warming climate that accelerates melting from both the surface and the base of the ice shelf.
It’s Worse Than We Thought
While many assume that the loss of Antarctic ice is a slow, distant process, Larsen C’s rapid deterioration challenges this narrative.
The shelf, which spans 55,000 square kilometers (21,235 square miles)—ten times the size of Larsen B—is melting at an unprecedented rate.
Last year, the MIDAS team published findings in Cryosphere detailing how Larsen C is succumbing to dual threats: surface melting from higher air temperatures and basal melting driven by warmer ocean waters.
Adding to these woes are meltponds, water-filled depressions forming on its surface. These pools of water act like wedges, seeping into cracks and accelerating their expansion.
A separate study published in Nature Communications revealed that meltponds have also been forming by the thousands on glaciers like Langhovde in East Antarctica.
This phenomenon is no longer isolated but part of a broader pattern of destabilization across the continent.
Global Consequences
When Larsen C eventually loses its massive iceberg, it won’t immediately cause sea levels to rise significantly.
Unlike glaciers, ice shelves are already floating, so their disintegration doesn’t directly add to ocean levels. However, the real danger lies beneath the surface.
Ice shelves act as buttresses, holding back the glaciers behind them.
Without Larsen C’s stabilizing influence, its connected glaciers could flow more rapidly into the ocean, contributing to long-term sea level rise.
Scientists estimate that if Larsen C were to completely collapse, it could raise global sea levels by approximately 10 centimeters (3.9 inches)—enough to threaten low-lying coastal regions worldwide.
Is There Any Hope?
A study in Nature Climate Change earlier this year suggested that Larsen C has a significant amount of “passive ice” that could break away without immediately compromising its structural integrity.
However, this optimism is tempered by the MIDAS team’s observations, which indicate that the ice front could become increasingly unstable after the anticipated calving event.
The collapse of Larsen A and B has already demonstrated how quickly these systems can disintegrate once key thresholds are crossed.
Larsen B, for example, lost an area the size of Rhode Island in 2002 and is now barely holding on, with experts predicting its total collapse by the end of the decade.
What Comes Next?
The future of Larsen C—and, by extension, the Antarctic Peninsula—remains uncertain.
As scientists monitor the expanding rift, the world is left to grapple with a stark reality: these ice shelves are melting faster than we ever imagined, and their loss has far-reaching implications for global ecosystems, weather patterns, and human societies.
The collapse of Larsen C would serve as a stark reminder of the urgency of addressing climate change.
While it’s too late to reverse the damage already done, there’s still time to mitigate future impacts by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and investing in renewable energy sources.
The MIDAS team will continue to track Larsen C’s progress, offering critical insights into this unfolding crisis. For now, the world watches and waits.
What You Can Do
Awareness is the first step toward action. Share this story, support climate research, and advocate for policies that prioritize sustainability.
The fate of Larsen C may be sealed, but the broader fight against climate change is one we can still win.
Stay tuned for updates on Larsen C’s status and what its collapse could mean for our planet.
